Tuesday, April 30, 2013

Packer Draft Grades Are In – And the Zang Meh Doh Says…

I have gone through and scored each pick via the revolutionary patent- and trademark-pending Zang Meh Doh Draft Domination Evaluation Tool we unveiled earlier this month. As with any scientific study, the results and methods must be analyzed to determine validity. Therefore, I holed up in my GOIBER until today...

Before I get to the grades, I must admit I found a significant yet easily fixable flaw in the Zang Meh Doh system that yielded results not commensurable with the selection’s value. Without getting too technical, my baseline was off. If a pick is exactly in line with your pre-draft ranking, as was the case of David Bakhtiari’s positional valuation, the score should be 0 (neither positive nor negative). By subtracting 100 from the previous final score, this outcome was resolved and also provided appropriate scores to the draft selection’s values - whether proportionally positive or negative. Here are the two revised scoring formulas to play along at home. I will also walk you through each pick’s score as well.
As a reminder that a true ZANG! (excellent) value pick is only achieved when the value of the player exceeds both the overall and positional categories. By comparison, a DOH! (fail) results when both overall and positional values are subpar.

Last point. Since I have not yet been granted access to the Packers draft board (call me, guys, this is important), I had to use someone else’s. I found that an NFL Draft Prospect ranking at CBSSports.com that provided me exactly with was I needed – the overall ranking and the positional ranking. I therefore used their rankings in the Zang Meh Doh. Follow this link for those rankings I mentioned.

Ok, Packer fans, Let’s see how ol’ TT did.

RD 1. Datone Jones, DE, taken as the 26th overall and the 4th at his position. Jones was pre-ranked as the 27th overall and the 3rd at his position. Final Zang Meh Doh Value of 29, Meh.
RD 2. Eddie Lacy, RB, taken as the 61st overall and the 4th at his position. Lacy was pre-ranked as the 36th overall and the 1st at his position. Final Zang Meh Doh Value of 369, Zang!
RD 4. David Bakhtiari, OT, taken as the 109th overall and the 8th at his position. Bakhtiari was pre-ranked as the 76th overall and the 8th at his position. Final Zang Meh Doh Value of 43, Zang!
RD 4. J.C. Tretter, OG, taken as the 122nd overall and the 9th at his position. Tretter was pre-ranked as the 189th overall and the 10th at his position. Final Zang Meh Doh Value of -45, Doh!
RD 4. Jonathan Franklin, RB, taken as the 125th overall and the 6th at his position. Franklin was pre-ranked as the 51st overall and 2nd at his position. Final Zang Meh Doh Value of 345, Zang!
RD 5. Micah Hyde, CB, taken as the 159th overall and the 22nd at his position. Hyde was pre-ranked as the 205th overall and the 25th at his position. Final Zang Meh Doh Value of -35, Doh!
RD 5. Josh Boyd, DT, taken as the 167th overall and 13th at his position. Boyd was pre-ranked the 171st overall and the 15th at his position. Final Zang Meh Doh Value of -15, Doh!
RD 6. Nathan Palmer, OLB, taken as the 193rd overall and the 14th at his position. Palmer was pre-ranked the 593rd overall and the 51st at his position. Final Zang Meh Doh Value of -140, Doh!

RD 7. Charles Johnson, WR, taken as the 216th overall and the 24th at his position. Johnson was pre-ranked the 230th overall and the 28th at his position. Final Zang Meh Doh Value of -20, Doh!
RD 7. Kevin Dorsey, WR, taken as the 224th overall and the 25th at his position. Dorsey was pre-ranked the 416th overall and the 47th at his position. Final Zang Meh Doh Value of -93, Doh!
RD 7. Samuel Barrington, OLB, taken as the 233rd overall and the 16 at his position. Barrington was pre-ranked the 319th overall and the 14th at his position. Final Zang Meh Doh Value of -13, Meh.
Final Score: 3 ZANGS! 2 MEHs. 6 DOHs! From the Packers' top Zang to lowest Meh draft values, the results are: 

1. Eddie Lacy (369)
2. Johnathan Franklin (345)
3. David Bakhtiari (43)
4. Datone Jones (29)
5. Samuel Barrington (-13)
6. Josh Boyd (-15)
7. Charles Johnson (-20)
8. Micah Hyde (-35)
9. J.C. Tretter (-45)
10. Kevin Dorsey (-93)
11. Nathan Palmer (-140).

Analysis: It’d be way too easy to get down on the 2nd half of the draft with all those DOHs taken on the 3rd day, but let’s be honest, rounds 5-7 are pretty much a shot in the dark. If you get one guy that works out, great. Clearly, Packers don’t mind taking a few extra “swings” with those later picks.

On the positive side – and there’s a LOT that I see – we essentially nailed 4 out of our top 5 picks and hit value HOME RUNS with Lacy and Franklin. It is really hard to find exceptional value in the first round, so to grab Datone Jones there will decent value and to fill a need is about a good as one could hope for. Moreover, to score so highly with your top picks/talent pool is absolutely huge and for that reason, I’ll have to concur with the general feeling of a B+ draft. However, if you’re like me, you needed to see the breakdown to be sure.

Now, please keep in mind these value rankings coincide with for the CBS draft board. In order to get Green Bay's detailed value assessment, I would need their draft board. And I would also need a computer science undergrad who would enter all 500+ draft prospects into a custom program he/she would create for a passionate letter of recommendation and a free cup at the 2013 Ranter holiday party. 

Ted, if the draft is all about value, I'd say you were Zang this draft, especially toward the early picks that matter. As far as day three of the draft, I'll have to give you the benefit of the doubt.
Disclaimer: The Zang Meh Doh Ultimate Draft Evaluation Domination Tool for the Modern General Manager is patent- and trademark-pending and proprietary to the website PackerRanter.com. All media inquiries should be directed to packerranter at yahoo.com. Thank you for your cooperation.

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